Overview of Asghar Khan case, the Afghan Issue and their Political Implications

The most encouraging outcome of Asghar Khan case is the court has made it clear that president house “cannot” and “will” not become battleground for any political party. This will have long term repercussions in the coming years. Another important conclusive statement is that regardless of any order being issued or not, Intelligence or defense agencies are forbidden to have any kind of political involvement.

Supreme Court of Pakistan has given a list of persons who have ostensibly been accused of the felony. These people are yet to be investigated. The point I want to make here is that if accusations are our measure of evaluation then all of the political personnel will stand legally unfit for election. A wiser option would be to wait for the investigation to unfold.

I believe that when two dexterous and experienced politicians like Parvez Elahi and Manzoor Wattoo are given the same task in Punjab an aura of apprehension and stress is bound to result.

I agree that Imran Khan and PTI got attention and support from the youth initially but in my personal opinion and based on a number of discussions I’ve had with youngsters from all over Pakistan, he is losing his credibility and many are questioning the practicality of Imran Khan’s policies. I would like to add that during the peak time of PTI’s popularity, for the age bracket of 18 to 24 PML(N) and PTI were more or less equal. For higher age brackets the PML is much ahead. That just proves that the situation is not as lopsided as it is portrayed, PML has always had marked representation in youth sector as well.

Economic Position Till Elections
My apprehension is the present ruling coalition in Pakistan would be interested to drag the process till the very last day unless there is an economic crisis.

Currently, rupee is being printed to cope with fiscal needs but the balance of payment position is deteriorating rapidly. There is 4 to 4.5 Billion current account deficit and near 5 billion loan payments due this fiscal year. The net reserves have come down to 9 to 9.5 billion dollars. This situation will promote dollarization and “Flight of Capital” will occur. If this happens Pakistan will have no option but to consult IMF for assistance. Given the present situation IMF will not be willing to assist till we conform to their conditions. In all probability PPP will not agree, as it is against their electoral interests. The only reason which will trigger an early election will be a balance of payment crisis.

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